What Bulgaria’s government collapse means for the rest of the EU

Good morning. Today, our south-east Europe correspondent explains why Bulgaria is (again) without a working government, and our Netherlands expert previews Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s tough assignment in meeting China’s leaders.

Things fall apart

Bulgaria’s two ruling parties have failed to transfer power at the first attempt to alternate the premiership within its grand coalition, heralding a likely sixth election in three years, writes Marton Dunai.

Context: Last May the conservative Gerb party and the liberal We Continue the Change (PP) agreed to form a government with power switching every nine months.

The political turmoil is likely to complicate efforts to integrate further into the EU mainstream. Bulgaria will join the EU’s border-free Schengen zone in air and maritime traffic next week, with an ambition to join fully in the coming year. It is also working to adopt the euro next year.

The mess has still wider ramifications. Gerb are members of European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s EPP group, and their capture of the prime minister’s chair was set to give the EPP 13 of the EU’s 27 leaders for the June discussions to decide on granting her a second term.

During their brief marriage, Gerb and PP have squabbled over bureaucratic positions and reforms of the country’s judicial system, anti-corruption bodies and the secret services.

All of those proved too much to hold the coalition together, with PP blaming former premier and Gerb powerbroker Boyko Borisov for sabotaging the reforms to prevent legal challenges against his allies, and accusing him of attempting to keep Russian proxies functional in the former Communist country.

“Did a working judicial system, working regulators, and reformed secret services finally turn out to be the problem?” PP leader and former premier Kiril Petkov wrote in a post on Facebook. Earlier he wrote: “Borisov is afraid because of old sins and preferred a [political] explosion in Bulgaria.”

Gerb, which won the most votes in last year’s election, rejected those accusations. It has returned the mandate to form a government to President Rumen Radev.

“Until the last moment, [PP] were insolent, they wanted to usurp power,” Borisov told reporters, adding his last-minute proposals to reshape the coalition were ignored. So “we made a final decision to protect the people, democracy, and now the PP have their chance”.

Both parties have admitted that the most likely outcome is a snap election in the next few months — a step that will only further delay reforms demanded by Brussels.

Bulgaria is also a Nato member and an important weapons supplier to Ukraine, too. Some analysts worry that the turmoil could disrupt that, or promote pro-Russian rhetoric from the country’s political extremes.

Chart du jour: Car crash

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A quarter of electric vehicles sold in the EU this year will be made in China, according to a new industry forecast, as the country’s new entrants continue to take sales from traditional European producers.

Man for all seasons

Outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is favourite for the Nato top job partly because of his famed ability to get along with anyone — including possible next US president Donald Trump. That skill will be tested once again in Beijing today, writes Andy Bounds.

Context: Rutte is meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang at a time of heightened tensions between Beijing and Europe — not least after the US pressured the Netherlands to restrict sales of the world’s most advanced chipmaking tools from ASML.

Washington is leaning on The Hague to go further by banning more machines and some services but Dutch officials insist that no announcements are imminent.

Rather, Rutte will press for further opening of the Chinese market to western companies. He will also raise human rights concerns and China’s close relationship with Russia, according to those briefed on the trip.

The Netherlands and China do almost €100bn of trade annually, with the port of Rotterdam being the entry point for many of Beijing’s exports to the EU. No wonder Rutte and Xi have now met six times since 2013.

As Brussels and Beijing clash over myriad trade concerns, the bilateral relationship with the Netherlands has also become frostier. In February the Dutch government accused China of hacking into a military network last year.

The Hague is also cracking down on partnerships between Dutch and Chinese universities and banning some students funded by the Chinese armed forces.

With the US and some other member states also pressing Nato to focus more on the perceived threat from China, it could be a tough trip even for a man of Rutte’s talents.

What to watch today

1. French President Emmanuel Macron meets Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Belém.

2. Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa visits German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin.

3. Estonian President Alar Karis is in Cyprus for a visit.

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• Ecommerce tariffs: The head of the WTO tells the FT that governments and businesses should prepare for a new regime for online purchases by 2026.

• Bean to bar: Meet the maverick Swiss creators turning tradition on its head in Zürich’s cool chocolate scene.